• Bill Alderson

New Mathematical Models for Forecasting Cyber Attacks

Updated: Apr 14

May 10-11 2022 Session by Charlene Deaver-Vazquez of

Title: New Mathematical Models for Forecasting Cyber Attacks

Probability theory gives us the ability to quantify risk and forecast events in a predictable way. These methods have been used in epidemiology, seismology, finance, and even space and nuclear safety analysis. Today a new algorithm gives us the ability to model the phenomenon of one event increasing the likelihood of more such events, referred to as "self-excitement". We witness this when a restaurant seats the first customers in the front window because they intuitively know it increases the likelihood of more customers. We also see it when a tweet goes viral. Applying these models to cyber realm gives us an unprecedented opportunity to peer into the future with the goals of improving our current decisions and developing mitigations before the risk is upon us.

Charlene Deaver-Vazquez
Charlene Deaver-Vazquez

Charlene has worked in the IT field over 30 years, and as a Subject Matter Expert over 12. She created the Probabilistic Risk Model for Cyber Framework (P-RMOD4Cyber). She authored the book "Ensure Your Business Success with Risk Informed Decisions: the easy way to quantify risk". For the last several years she has been providing analytical services for the Nuclear Regulatory Commission.

Hear Charlene May 10-11 2022 Register for Austin Cyber Show Zoom Events

Join US and Canada cyber community members at the inaugural Austin Cyber Show Conference at Concordia University Texas, May 10-11. During the two-day cyber defense conference, participants can engage in discussions with peer leaders and industry experts on the cyber risks and challenges that businesses, leaders, developers, educators, and students face each day. Attendees will walk away with new insight and leadership lessons learned to defend against ransomware, phishing, and data exfiltration attacks. Five Cyber-By-Fire Skill Certificates are available to earn at the event and via Zoom Events online for 30 days afterward. Certain Zoom Event features only work in US/CAN.

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